Here is the Formula:
Estimated end date = ((Total scope - Total completed scope)*RM)/Velocity + Today's date
* Velocity is the slope of the trend line for total completed stories from your defined start date to today. We apply this calculated velocity to today to forecast the end date.
* The trend slope is Linear Regression Slope.
* RM stands for "Risk Multiplier" In our forecast charts. No scope change: RM =1; 50% Scope change: RM =1.5; 150% Scope change: RM = 2.5
Here is an example (to simplify it, I only show the case for RM=1, no scope change)
1) The table and graph show work completed from 12-Oct-12 to today; work starts being completed on 14-Oct-12.
2) We use liner regression calculation to get the slope: 0.44055944
3) Say I have 10 stories in total. 5 of them have already completed.
Forecasted date = (10-5)/0.4405944 + 25 Oct,12 = 5 Nov, 2012
Mingle Plus uses this same calculation to generate forecasts in your program plan. Learn more about how we forecast in Mingle Plus.